
he mainstream press doesn’t always cover the
EV-related stories that those of us in the indus-
try would consider the most signicant, but the
recent spate of announcements by various governments
concerning an eventual phase-out of ICE vehicles has re-
ally caught the imagination of the world’s newspapers and
mass-market magazines.
Ocials in Norway, the Netherlands, France, India, the
UK and China, as well as a growing number of cities, have
all made statements to the eect that fossil-burners may
someday be phased out. e popular press has covered
these stories extensively, in many cases reporting that a
“ban” is imminent. What does all this really mean, and
how newsworthy is it?
e rst country to make headlines was (of course)
Norway, where some government ocials announced in
2016 that they were seeking to ban ICE vehicles by 2025.
In February 2017, long aer the press had run away with
the story, the government claried its intentions in an on-
line post: “e Norwegian Parliament have decided on a
goal that all new cars sold by 2025 should be zero (electric
or hydrogen) or low (plug-in hybrids) emission. e Par-
liament will reach this goal with a strengthened green tax
system based on the polluter pays principle, not a ban.”
Last July, the UK government announced a multi-
faceted plan to reduce air pollution, which included a
deadline of 2050 for the end of ICE vehicle sales. Also in
July, French Ecology Minister Nicolas Hulot said that his
country aims to end the sale of gas and diesel vehicles by
2040, and become carbon-neutral 10 years later. India’s
government announced the “ambition that by 2030, all ve-
hicles sold in India may be electric-powered.” “is is an
aspirational target,” said government energy adviser Anil
Kumar Jain. “Ultimately the logic of markets will prevail.”
A careful reading of these announcements reveals that
most of them refer to aspirational goals, not actual legisla-
tive proposals, much less imminent bans of ICE vehicles.
It’s also worth keeping in mind that it’s oen a long road
from a politician’s sweeping statement to a permanent
policy. If and when any of the democracies do propose
actual bans, these will be challenged in legislatures and
courts, and bitterly resisted by the politically powerful
auto and oil industries. In most cases, the dates for these
transitions have been set so far in the future that the
politicians who proposed them will be long retired by the
time any nal decision is made.
And then there is China. e world’s largest auto mar-
ket has not set a rm date for a complete ICE phase-out,
but ocials have said they are studying the issue, and an
announcement of a timeline
is expected soon. Whether
they call it a “ban” or not,
China’s aggressive EV
quotas, which will begin
to take eect in 2019,
are putting real pressure
on global automakers to
electrify, and they are the
main reason for the major
EV investments we’ve been
reading about recently. As the
Financial Times put it, “China has
huge leverage over the industry and is not afraid to use it.”
e quota system is a settled policy, and China’s policy-
makers have far fewer worries about pesky details such as
industry prots or consumer tastes than Western leaders
do.
Whether governments choose to promote electrica-
tion through cooperation or coercion, an actual ban on
ICE vehicles is unlikely to be needed, and may not even
be wise. Governments did not nd it necessary to ban
horse-drawn travel or sailing ships in the 20th century,
any more than they bothered to ban typewriters, cathode-
ray-tube TVs or polyester suits. Governments have a
legitimate role in giving new technologies a helping hand,
but they usually have no need to ban old ones that are due
to fade away on their own. And, just as there are those
who love horses and sailboats, some people adore the roar
of a well-tuned Mustang, and if they’re willing to pay for
it, there’s no reason they shouldn’t have one.
From a practical standpoint, aside from China, many
of these national bans, or goals, or whatever you want to
call them, don’t seem to mean much. Does that mean they
are pointless? Far from it. Aspirational goals of this kind
can be useful frameworks within which governments will
implement practical measures, such as EV purchase in-
centives, infrastructure investment, battery research, etc.
- just as greenhouse-gas emissions targets are used today.
Another positive eect of national ICE phase-outs,
even if (or especially if) they are exaggerated by the press,
is that they raise awareness of EVs among the general
public. e Average Joe or Jane’s awareness of EVs is still
very low - many people have no idea that they are a viable
option (“I’d love to have a Tesla - how do they do on gas?”
an acquaintance of your author recently said). So, while
implementing a ban on ICEs may be an impractical idea,
if talking about a ban is what it takes to get people’s atten-
tion, then let the media go to town.
By Charles Morris
T
How significant are so-called ICE bans?